Melbourne, 2026: A Property Market Finding Its Feet Again

Melbourne has always been a city that moves in cycles.

I’ve seen it enough times to know, when things go quiet, people start doubting it. They ask if they’ve missed the boat… or worse, if the boat ever left at all.

The past few years have felt like that for Melbourne. While other capital cities took off, Melbourne stayed measured. Buyers hesitated. Sellers waited. Conversations were full of “maybe later” and “let’s just see what happens.”

But heading into 2026, something feels different.

Not loud. Not chaotic. Just… steady.

And honestly? That’s usually when Melbourne does its best work.

The Shift I’m Seeing on the Ground

Throughout 2025, the questions changed.

People stopped asking me “Should I wait another year?” and started asking “What does this look like if I move now?”
First-home buyers are back having real conversations. Investors are running numbers again. Families are thinking longer-term instead of sitting on pause.

It’s not because the market suddenly became easy, it hasn’t.
It’s because things became clearer.

Rates stabilised. Borrowing power became more predictable. Confidence crept back in, quietly, but meaningfully.

Why Melbourne Is Back on the Radar

Compared to Sydney, Melbourne is still more affordable.
Compared to the last few years, buyers have more breathing room.
Compared to other capitals that have already surged, Melbourne still has upside.

That matters.

It’s why I’m seeing strong interest in established suburbs, well-connected areas, and pockets that offer lifestyle without an unrealistic price tag. Units, which many people wrote off, are making sense again. And buyers who take the time to understand the market are finding real opportunities.

This isn’t a “rush in” market.
It’s a “move with purpose” market.

Supply Is Tighter Than It Looks

On paper, Melbourne often looks well supplied. But when you dig a little deeper, the story changes.

Construction costs are still high. New builds aren’t flooding the market. And many homeowners are choosing to hold rather than sell.

So while demand is lifting, quality stock isn’t increasing at the same pace.

That’s the kind of environment where prices don’t spike overnight, but they do trend upward in a way that actually lasts.

The Rental Market Reality

Melbourne’s rental market has its own rhythm.

Vacancy rates may be higher than other capitals, but demand hasn’t disappeared, it’s just more balanced. Population growth, migration, and lifestyle shifts are still driving long-term rental need, especially in well-located suburbs.

For investors, that means the focus needs to be on fundamentals: good properties, in good areas, with a long-term plan. Not quick wins, but sustainable ones.

What I Think 2026 Will Reward

If I had to sum up Melbourne property heading into 2026, it would be this:

Clarity beats speed.

Buyers who understand their numbers.
Investors who play the long game.
Sellers who choose timing over pressure.

The market isn’t about jumping blindly anymore, but it’s also not about waiting forever.

Melbourne doesn’t need hype to perform. Historically, it does best when it’s calm, considered, and quietly confident.

Final Thoughts

As we move into 2026, Melbourne doesn’t feel like it’s finishing a cycle, it feels like it’s starting a new one.

Not rushed.
Not emotional.
Just solid.

And for people who take the time to understand it, this next chapter could be a really good one.